Poisson Scoreline & BTTS/OU Calculator

Models football goals with a Poisson distribution, producing a full scoreline probability matrix and top scorelines. Aggregates to 1X2 probabilities and fair odds. Best used when expected goals (λ) are already estimated; helpful to inspect model bias, sanity-check market prices, and feed Kelly staking.
本工具基于泊松分布建模足球进球数,给出完整比分概率矩阵与 Top Scorelines,并据此汇总 1X2(主/平/客)概率与公平赔率。 适用于前置已估计出两队期望进球(λ)场景,可用于检视模型倾向、验证盘口合理性或为 Kelly 下注提供输入。

Tip: You can type 1.40 or even 1.40 / 1,40 — the inputs will be normalized automatically.

Estimate λ from recent matches (quick)

λ_home = atk_home × def_away × (L/2) × h;λ_away = atk_away × def_home × (L/2) ÷ h